Issue number 489 of the CIES Football Observatory Weekly Post forecasts the resultsup to the end of the season of teams in 42 leagues around the world according to their performance level. The latter was measured on the basis of a statistical model including the number and location of the passes and shots made and conceded so far by teams (Wyscout data), regardless of the results obtained.
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In the five major European leagues, the best progress in terms of points per match should come from Toulouse and Monaco in Ligue 1 (with Auxerre and Strasbourg at the opposite end), Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga (RB Leipzig at the opposite), Cagliari and Como in Serie A (Empoli at the opposite), Tottenham and Manchester City in the Premier League (Newcastle at the opposite), as well as Girona and Getafe in La Liga (Leganés at the opposite).
Across all leagues, the greatest positive gaps between the points per match achieved so far and those predicted up until the season end were measured for Bulgaria’s CSKA Sofia (+0.66), United Arab Emirates’ Al-Wasl FC (+0.54) and Cyprus’ APOEL FC (+0.5). Conversely, Serbia’s FK Mladost (-0.62), the Emiratis of Ittihad Kalba (-0.52) and Saudi Arabia’s Al-Riyadh SC (also -0.52) are expected to experience the biggest drops in form.
